About Last Night

✅ Michigan -4.5

✅ Michigan Team Total over 30.5

✅ Thunder @ Wizards over 246.5

The haters are sick. THEY’RE SICK. Michigan was a roller coaster of emotions where after the first quarter I thought the game wouldn’t even get close but Washington figured out how to limit the run game in the second and third quarter. I called it though, Michigan wore down the Husky defense to the point where they were not able to stop the run down the stretch, and Michael Penix was running for his life all night. Shocker, I was right again. Although this Michigan team is corny, it is good for the sport for them to be good.

Clevland Browns @ Houston Texans

The Clevland defense is top 3 in almost every metric there is, they are elite. However, they are a much different team away from home versus on the road. On the road they just arent as good. When these two teams matchuped a few weeks ago, both team had injuries, CJ Stroud was out and the Browns had quite a few injuries on defense specifically. The big question will be how CJ Stroud will preform in his first playoff games, as Quarterbacks making their first playoff start are 17-36 since 2002. The Browns have the better defense, a more experienced Quarterback, and rested a lot of players last week. CJ Stroud has not been great when getting pressured this year and Jim Schwartz will be dialing up quite a bit of pressure. I am not sure how the rest of the game will go but I like the Browns to come out and put pressure on Stroud early and often.

Pick: Browns 1H -0.5

Miami Dolphins @ Kansas City Chiefs

This game is going to be pretty gross in my opinion. This will wind up being one of the coldest games in NFL history. It is so cold that the defending champions have playoff tickets for less than $50. The weather is going to play a major factor into how much these teams will utilize their passing game. I personally think they will end up airing it out more than people think. The Dolphins have one of the best run offenses in the League, but they typically use speed and misdirection, not power running. The Chiefs have an average running game but are more able to adapt and have a power running game. I have gone back and forth on which side to take so much it hurts. This number is too high for me to back the Chiefs in a game like this. Earlier in the week I would’ve told you the Chiefs under a field goal. There are some books that have the Dolphins all the way up to 5 now, not mine but I will take the points here.

Pick: Dolphins +4.5

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Pittsburgh Steelers @ Buffalo Bills

This game will also be very impacted by the weather. The Bills are the hottest team in the NFL, winning their last 5 games and 6 of their last 7. They seem to be peaking at the exact right time. On the other hand, the Steelers squeaked into the playoffs in week 18 thanks to facing a resting Ravens team and the Jaguars losing to the Titans. The Steelers will also be without TJ Watt, a brutal hit to their defense. I am all around not sure how much to trust this Steelers team, and at this point in the season I do not want to bet against the Bills. Josh Allen covers big spreads, when he wins, he wins big. I will feed the hot hand and back the Bills here.

Pick: Bills -9.5

Green Bay Packers @ Dallas Cowboys

I am assuming we are in the trust tree here, as a Cowboys fan, I am terrified. There is a very real and tangible way for us to make it to the NFC Championship, but having hope in the Cowboys is like trusting that girl that you swear to your friends has changed. There are so many reasons to think the Cowboys are a different team this year, but as someone who was born in 1997, I have only ever been let down. Jordan Love has been playing really good and the Packers offense has been buzzing. They definitely have not been playing the highest quality opponents but still you need to beat the bad teams before you can beat the good teams. This Cowboys offense has been buzzing all year long and the Packers defense has been mediocre at best all year long. I want to abstain from picking a side here because if the Cowboys divide to poo poo themselves I don’t want to lose money on it. Overs at AT&T Stadium are 5-3 this year. I expect that to continue.

Pick: Over 50.5

LA Rams @ Detroit Lions

So much talk about Matthew Stafford coming to Detroit, no one is focusing on the Jared Goff revenge factor. Goff is also an indoor cat, he plays so much better indoors as opposed to outdoors. Detroit is an above average team against the run but is abysmal against the pass. Stafford will be able to air it out all day long and have a day. The Rams are also not great against the pass. I am going to go with the public here and believe in the points. Detroit is 6-2 to overs at Ford Field and the Rams are 6-3 to overs on the road. Trust the data and take the points.

Pick: Over 51.5