About Last Night: 1-1

✅ Lions @ Niners over 51.5

❌ Ravens 1H -2.5

It was very clear from the jump that the Chiefs would not be denied. Patrick Mahomes went a perfect 10/10 to start the game. The real story was the Kansas City defense. The Ravens offense has looked unstoppable at points this season, and they looked inept against the Chiefs. A good portion goes to the play calling from Todd Monken, but still, the Chief’s defense was dominant all day long. Boy was the NFC Championship game a classic. The Niners looked like they couldn’t get much going in the first half, while the Lions looked like they could do whatever they wanted. Then came the flip… The crowd was completely out of the game, it looked like they were going to lose a third straight NFC Championship game. Then a Brock Purdy slight overthrow bounces off the helmet of a member of the Lion’s secondary, and Brandon Aiyuk makes an incredible catch, leading to a touchdown and completely flipping the momentum. Lots will be made of Dan Campbell deciding to go for it twice while in field goal range. I am personally on the side of going for it one of those times, maybe not both though. The first one really should have been converted but the ball went right through Josh Reynolds's hands. Ultimately, Dan Campbell and the Lions have remained aggressive throughout his tenure and will continue to, that is part of the reason why they go this far and why they will continue to be a contender for the next few years.

With that being said, let’s get into today’s picks.

Chiefs vs. Niners (-1 o/u 47.5) Early Reads

I have a lot of emotions about this game as I am a Cowboys fan who does not want to see the Niners succeed. I am also tired of the Chiefs winning and I just lost money fading Mahomes so it seems like the dumb thing to do to just snap back the Chiefs. As my emotions fade and clarity comes forward, I will get sharper. My first bet was taking the Chiefs at +110 ML as I think that is a good median number for Chiefs ML. This opened at 2.5 and 3 and immediately dropped to 1. I think more money will come in on the Niners, pushing this back up, and will ultimately close at 2 or 2.5. I have also reconciled that my backing of the Chiefs is more about backing Steve Spagnuolo and the Chiefs’ defense and fading the Niners’ overrated defense. This then leads to me also liking the under here as well. I would be shocked if this number moved above 48 or below 46.5, this is a pretty sharp number.

Pick: Chiefs ML +110 / Under 47.5

Houston @ Texas

Houston has been proven this year that they belong in talks among the best teams in the country, especially with how they play defense. They are the number one team in defensive efficiency and lead in a plethora of other defensive categories. Texas enters this game having lost 3 out of their last 5 and 4 out of their last 7. Although Texas has strong offensive potential and could break out of its slump here, I am not buying it against this Cougar defense.

Picks: Under 130.5 / Houston -4.5

Like What You’ve Read So Far?

If so, tell a friend and let them know you just ✨ snagged ✨ one of the newest and most awesome football newsletters by sending them this link! If not, send us a message and let us know what else we could be doing to make this a more enjoyable read for you.

Bucks @ Nuggets

The Nuggets home court advantage is no secret. They are 16-6 at home ATS in the first quarter, while Milwaukee is 5-15 on the road ATS. Doc Rivers is also coaching his first game as the Buck’s head coach, and if there is one thing I know about Doc it’s that he will lose the important games.

Picks: Nuggets 1Q -1 / ML -140